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1、我國(guó)外債規(guī)模及其影響因素的實(shí)證分析預(yù)測(cè)Vol.30,No.3FORECASTING2011年第3期我國(guó)外債規(guī)模及其影響因素的實(shí)證分析擎研妮，冉茂盛(安慶大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管輟學(xué)院，重慶礎(chǔ)。030)摘要:外債的適度規(guī)模對(duì)盧國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)有著重要的意義，那么哪些因素影響我國(guó)的外債規(guī)模?本文概括了外債所涉及三是運(yùn)作渠道的相關(guān)因素，運(yùn)用時(shí)間序列的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)以及Granger因采檢艙方法梭驗(yàn)影響我閻長(zhǎng)短期外債規(guī)模的閣索。結(jié)論得出:影響長(zhǎng)期外債規(guī)模的為財(cái)政盈余;影響短期外債的為財(cái)政支出、閡家預(yù)算內(nèi)閣定資產(chǎn)投資、城鄉(xiāng)儲(chǔ)蓄總額以及熱錢的流入，而短期外債也會(huì)9..作用于外匯儲(chǔ)備與財(cái)政收入;外債總額促進(jìn)了GDP的增加。關(guān)
2、鍵詡:外債規(guī)模;協(xié)'*檢驗(yàn);Granger閑來檢驗(yàn)a:p團(tuán)分類號(hào):F812.5文獻(xiàn)棟i只碼:A文3位編號(hào):1∞3-5192(2011)03-0027-05EmpiricalAnalysisofChina’sForeignDebtScaleandItsInt1uencingFactorsLIYan-ni,RANMao-sheng(College01EcOTWmcs&BusinmAdministration,Ch刷刷inUnivers時(shí)，Chongqin40∞30，China)Abstract:Themodestsizeofforeigndebtonacountry’8eco
3、nomyissignificant,thenwhatfactor部affectthe8caleofChina’sforeigndebt?Thispaper8ummarizescorrelativefactorsthroughIheIhreetypesofchannelwhichtheoperstionofextemaldebtareinvolvedin.ThemethodsofcointegrationtestsandGrangertestsareused10analyzethefactorstoactonthelong-termandtheshort-term創(chuàng)temaldebts.Th
4、econcusionsaredrawn:thefiscalsurplusGrangercausethelong咽rmforei伊debt;theslatebudgetinvestmentinfixed嗣陰陽(yáng)，thetotaurban&ruralsavingsandhotmoneycausetheshort-termdebttochange.At翩翩timetheshort帽termdebtwilalsoworkbackonforeignexchangereserv倒andfi邸'calrevenue;extemaldebtpromotestheincreaseoft
5、heGDP.Key我國(guó)外債規(guī)模及其影響因素的實(shí)證分析預(yù)測(cè)Vol.30,No.3FORECASTING2011年第3期我國(guó)外債規(guī)模及其影響因素的實(shí)證分析擎研妮，冉茂盛(安慶大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管輟學(xué)院，重慶礎(chǔ)。030)摘要:外債的適度規(guī)模對(duì)盧國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)有著重要的意義，那么哪些因素影響我國(guó)的外債規(guī)模?本文概括了外債所涉及三是運(yùn)作渠道的相關(guān)因素，運(yùn)用時(shí)間序列的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)以及Granger因采檢艙方法梭驗(yàn)影響我閻長(zhǎng)短期外債規(guī)模的閣索。結(jié)論得出:影響長(zhǎng)期外債規(guī)模的為財(cái)政盈余;影響短期外債的為財(cái)政支出、閡家預(yù)算內(nèi)閣定資產(chǎn)投資、城鄉(xiāng)儲(chǔ)蓄總額以及熱錢的流入，而短期外債也會(huì)9..作用于外匯儲(chǔ)備與財(cái)政收入;外債總額促進(jìn)
6、了GDP的增加。關(guān)鍵詡:外債規(guī)模;協(xié)'*檢驗(yàn);Granger閑來檢驗(yàn)a:p團(tuán)分類號(hào):F812.5文獻(xiàn)棟i只碼:A文3位編號(hào):1∞3-5192(2011)03-0027-05EmpiricalAnalysisofChina’sForeignDebtScaleandItsInt1uencingFactorsLIYan-ni,RANMao-sheng(College01EcOTWmcs&BusinmAdministration,Ch刷刷inUnivers時(shí)，Chongqin40∞30，China)Abstract:Themodestsizeofforeigndebtonacou
7、ntry’8economyissignificant,thenwhatfactor部affectthe8caleofChina’sforeigndebt?Thispaper8ummarizescorrelativefactorsthroughIheIhreetypesofchannelwhichtheoperstionofextemaldebtareinvolvedin.Themethodsofcointegration
